A
We make decisions every minute of our lives, from large, life-changing ones about our careers or relationships to mundane, day-to-day ones, like which socks to wear or how to travel to work. But we often make decisions without considering what we are doing and sometimes our emotions get in the way of rational thought. Making good choices is a balance between reason and desire, knowing what has happened in the past and what you want in the future. Most people do this instinctively, without understanding the mental processes that influence our decisions, but what would happen if we understood these processes better? Researchers today are uncovering the hidden influences that direct us one way or the other when we make choices.
B
‘Everyone loves a winner’ is a common saying but surprisingly, people dislike losing more than they like winning and it actually takes a lot to tempt us to take a risk. Psychologist and economist Daniel Kahneman from Princeton University found that people do not like to bet money in a 50:50 situation unless they can win twice the amount they could lose. So, for example, although the chance of winning or losing is the same, most people will only bet $100 if they can win more than $200. This suggests that people are more likely to decide to stick with a current situation unless there is a powerful reason to change.
C
When a decision needs to be made, emotions seem to get in the way. Daniel Fessler from the University of California asked a group of people to play a game in which they could either get a $15 reward or gamble with the money and risk getting nothing. In one version of the game, he made the people feel angry beforehand and found that men, but not women, gambled more when they were feeling annoyed.
D
So, while emotions can sometimes influence us to make bad decisions, logically, the more information we have, the better decisions we should make. Unfortunately, researchers have found that this is not necessarily the case. Having too much data can be just as problematic as having too little. Ap Dijksterhuis and his colleagues at the University of Amsterdam gave two groups of subjects a problem: which car to choose. One group got a list describing just four features, such as how many miles a car had been driven, while the other group had a list of twelve features. Dijksterhuis found that the subjects who had fewer choices picked the best car for them, whereas the other group became confused by the number of features. Surprisingly, the latter group made the best decision when they did not analyse their options based on the features given and relied on gut instinct.
E
Another factor that influences our decision-making is sunk cost. The supersonic jet Concorde is a good illustration of the sunk cost fallacy, where the British and French governments justified further spending on a project that would never make a profit because of the amount already spent on it. The sunk cost fallacy, in other words, is the belief that if you have already invested time or money in something, this justifies spending more time or money on it. The fallacy also influences decision-making on a much smaller scale. The more time or money we have invested in something, the more attached to it we are. Hal Arkes and Catherine Blumer at Ohio State University asked a group of students to imagine they had paid $100 for a trip. They were then told they could buy another holiday to a better resort but for a cheaper price. After they had bought both holidays, the students were told that the trips were on the same weekend and they had to choose one of them. Surprisingly, they chose the more expensive but worse deal – a decision based on the fallacy, not logic.
F
The way we behave around our friends has often been studied and it seems that their behaviour also strongly influences the decisions we take. At Arizona State University, researchers led by Robert Cialdini placed cards in hotel rooms asking guests to use their towels more than once, either a) to help the environment, or b) for the sake of future generations, or c) because most of the other guests in the hotel were doing so. The last reason turned out to be 30% more effective than the other two reasons. Social validation can be a major factor in decision-making so it is a good idea to ask yourself when you are making a decision whether it really is your own.
G
On the other hand, we make fast and competent judgements all the time about who we want to talk to and to trust. Alexander Todorov and Janine Willis from Princeton University found that people make judgements about qualities like aggressiveness, likability and attractiveness within the first 100 milliseconds of seeing a person for the first time. Even when the research subjects were given one second more time, they usually just became more confident about their initial choice. It seems that snap decisions and quick judgements can be valid ways of making decisions.